How Canary works
Miners once carried canaries underground because the birds reacted to danger before people could sense it. Canary does the same job for the world: one page that shows which risks deserve attention right now, and why.
What the colours mean
Each colour is an attention level. It describes conditions as they are now. It is not a forecast, a probability, or advice.
The arrow beside each signal shows the direction of risk over roughly the past week, not the direction of the number. ↑ means worsening, → stable and ↓ easing.
A long-running situation at steady intensity, such as an ongoing war, is usually rated Watch. Alert is reserved for significant escalation or acute events, as each rubric defines.
How each signal is assessed
Four times a day, at about 05:40, 11:40, 17:40 and 23:40 UK time, an automated run does the following:
- Fetches hard numbers from open data: market prices and indices, US Federal Reserve data (FRED), USGS earthquakes, the UN/EC disaster alert system (GDACS), NOAA space weather, CO₂ and El Niño data, NSIDC sea ice, ERA5 global temperature and Met Office warnings.
- Applies the published rubric for each signal. Where a rubric has numeric thresholds, the number sets a floor: news can raise a status but cannot lower it below what the data says.
- Researches the qualitative signals (conflicts, diplomacy, outbreaks, cyber incidents) from recent reporting by established outlets and official bodies. The AI model doing this is Anthropic's Claude, working to the editorial rules in the project repository.
- Writes short context for each signal (why it's at this level and what it means for you) and cites its sources.
- Validates everything before publishing. A run that fails the checks publishes nothing, and the board keeps its last good state.
Slower-moving signals, such as climate indicators, food prices and humanitarian classifications, are re-assessed once a day.
Keeping the ratings stable
- Hysteresis. To step down a level, a number must clear the threshold by a 10% margin. For example, the VIX must fall below 27, not just below 30, to leave Alert. This stops statuses flickering.
- One step at a time. A signal cannot jump straight from Normal to Alert, or back, in one run unless a hard threshold is crossed or an official trigger fires. Any exception carries a written note.
- Every change is logged with a reason, and published in the feed.
The World State index
The headline number from 0 to 100 summarises the board. Each signal scores 0 for Normal, 1 for Watch and 2 for Alert. Signals are averaged within each domain, so a domain with more signals doesn't count for more. Domains are then combined with these weights: geopolitics and armed conflict 1.2, global health 1.1, markets, economy, energy and hazards 1.0, technology, humanitarian and UK 0.8, and climate 0.6 (climate moves slowly and is already reflected in the hazards domain). A score of 0 would mean every signal is Normal; 100 would mean every signal is on Alert.
What Canary is not
- Not advice. Nothing here is financial, investment, medical, legal or safety advice. Market signals describe conditions; they are not trading signals. Market stress indicators are poor at timing decisions.
- Not a forecast. Canary describes the present, not what will happen.
- Not official. For anything affecting your safety, follow official guidance: the Met Office, FCDO travel advice, UKHSA and NHS, or your local emergency services.
- Not infallible. An AI model makes the qualitative judgements. It works to strict rules and cites sources, but it can be wrong. Check the sources on any signal that matters to you.
Every signal and its rubric
These criteria are applied on every run. Numeric thresholds are binding; written criteria guide judgement.